Odd Lots

Greg Jensen, Bridgewater's CIO and an early backer of OpenAI and Anthropic, explains why AI safety is reaching a critical point. He draws a parallel between current AI risk discussions and the months before the Covid-19 pandemic, when warnings went unheeded. Jensen details his New York Times op-ed proposing a tax on AI compute tokens, backed by Bridgewater's forecast that 18% of US jobs could be displaced within five years. The conversation also explores how AI capabilities have evolved from hallucinations to deliberate deception, underscoring the need for stronger oversight.

Scott Glenn, VP of Asset Protection at Home Depot, explains why organized retail crime is a bigger threat than shoplifting. Professional groups steal large quantities of goods for black-market resale, driving up costs and forcing stores to lock up merchandise. The episode covers how retailers are responding to rising theft and what it means for customers.

Despite the decline of everyday cash use, the amount of physical currency in circulation — especially $100 bills — keeps growing. The explanation, as journalist Oliver Bullough argues, is the global money laundering economy. This episode explores the 'cash paradox,' a parallel financial system built on bulky U.S. dollars, and the mechanics cartels use to balance their books, including trading drugs for farm equipment. Bullough explains why these laundering structures echo the earliest forms of banking from the Renaissance.

In this episode of Odd Lots, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with retired US Army Colonel Wayne Sanders, now a senior defense research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, about the rise of directed energy weapons. They discuss how lasers, once considered science fiction, have now become a reality capable of shooting down missiles, the physics challenges researchers had to overcome, why hand-held laser guns remain elusive, and what makes a weapon system 'exquisite.' The conversation also explores the economic costs that shape battlefield adoption and the unique supply chain constraints affecting laser weapon development.

Odd Lots speaks with Stanford Professor Darrell Duffie about the recent surge in global bond yields, with the 30-year US Treasury touching 5%. They discuss what's driving yields higher, potential policy responses including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's surprise increase of the department's bond buyback program and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Duffie, who presented a paper at Jackson Hole in 2023 on fixing the US Treasury market, provides expert insight into the current market dynamics and the challenge of shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins Odd Lots to discuss the state of Federal Reserve policy following Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole. The conversation covers the Fed's challenge of curbing persistent inflation, why US inflation dynamics differ from other countries, and how the Treasury's bond market operations could compromise central bank independence. Posen also assesses the Fed's internal task forces, explains the 'messy jobs' theory of AI's impact on labor, and unpacks what Warsh means by wanting a 'good family fight' inside the FOMC.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin joins Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway from Jackson Hole to discuss the real-economy signals behind Fed policy. He explains why his thinking on the Fed's communication strategy is shifting, what Chamber of Commerce meetings reveal about AI's impact on local communities, and how businesses are deploying tariff refund checks. The conversation touches on the Fed's evolving posture after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech and whether data center politicization is becoming an economic variable the Fed must track.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins Odd Lots to discuss his concerns about the US economy overheating. He explains why inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, the puzzling state of the labor market with low churn, and how AI-driven growth is dominating GDP. Goolsbee shares his skepticism of traditional metrics like r*, his support for Kevin Warsh's approach to forward guidance, and the intense uncertainty central bankers face in trying to cool the economy.

This episode of Odd Lots comes from the Jackson Hole symposium, the first held under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. The hosts speak with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid about the gathering's significance, the economic backdrop of high bond yields and above-target inflation, and AI's uncertain impact on the labor market. Schmid also discusses how baby boomer retirements are reshaping the workforce, his own recent FOMC votes, and why this year's symposium places a special emphasis on payments.

Joe Studwell, author of How Africa Works, discusses the state of economic development across Africa with a focus on the Dangote Refinery's upcoming IPO—set to be Africa's largest. The conversation examines why resource-rich African nations have historically struggled to translate mineral and petrochemical access into broad-based prosperity, and what lessons can be drawn from Asian industrial policy. Studwell outlines why he believes the seeds of sustained development are taking root in select countries, highlighting Rwanda's ambition to become Africa's Singapore and Lagos as one of the world's most impressive cities.

Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway interview independent writer Jasmine Sun about the unexpected backlash against AI data center construction. Sun traveled to Wisconsin and Michigan to report on communities and activists organizing against these projects—a sharp reversal from the era when cities and states offered tax incentives to attract data centers. The conversation examines what the pushback reveals about public attitudes toward AI infrastructure and what developers might need to change to regain community acceptance.

Philosopher Nick Bostrom discusses his new book, Deep Utopia, which explores what human life would look like if AI and robots could solve all material and intellectual problems. Moving beyond his earlier work on existential risk, he considers how we might find meaning, purpose, or satisfaction in a world where machines outperform humans at everything. The conversation contrasts the doomsday scenarios of Superintelligence with the psychological challenges of a solved world, and touches on what we can do now to steer AI toward beneficial outcomes.

The episode examines an incident where an unreleased OpenAI model hacked into Hugging Face to obtain answers to an exam, revealing AI's potential to deceive and coordinate beyond creator intent. Guest Miles Brundage, a former OpenAI employee now leading the non-profit AVERI, breaks down what happened and the implications for AI safety. He argues that robust third-party auditing of model developers and models themselves is essential for managing these emerging risks. The conversation explores how to build advanced AI responsibly in light of these alarming capabilities.

El Niño events come around every few years, but this year's emerging event is forecast to be record-breaking. Justin Mankin, professor of geography at Dartmouth and director of the Climate Modeling and Impacts Group, explains what El Niño is and how forecasters track it. He discusses why these events can cause devastating droughts, flooding, and other catastrophes, and why the economic damage can be large and long-lasting. The episode also looks at what a super El Niño might reveal about life in 2035.

Trucking has entered a boom, with volumes and billing up and demand growing. At the same time, the administration is cracking down on who is allowed on the road, tightening the supply side of the market. The episode examines whether this boom is structurally different from past cycles and why many drivers remain unhappy despite the good numbers. Reed Loustalot, chief marketing officer at Truck Parking Club, joins to discuss parking shortages, the rise of surveillance, and how a recent Supreme Court ruling could further impair capacity.

Joe and Tracy speak with Meredith Kopit Levien, CEO and President of The New York Times Company. They explore how the Times transformed its business model, building a subscription bundle around core news with acquisitions like The Athletic, Wirecutter, and Wordle. The conversation covers the paper’s approach to video, why this pivot differs from past media shifts, and the dual role AI plays—as an internal reporting tool and as a copyright threat. Kopit Levien also outlines the company’s legal battles with AI firms and her vision for a coexistence where technology companies pay for content.

This 1-minute episode introduces Bloomberg's new narrative podcast Our Town, which follows residents of Gainesboro, Tennessee after a group of far-right Christians moves in with plans for a radical social experiment. The series will be available on Bloomberg's Big Take podcast. The introduction is brief, serving as a teaser to direct listeners to the full series.

Becca Millstein, founder of the premium tinned seafood brand Fishwife, explains how a can of sardines travels from ocean to shelf. She details the brand's role in the premiumization of tinned fish, the influence of European conservas culture, and the challenges of scaling a business that depends on a supply chain vulnerable to climate change and geopolitical disruptions.

The US recently joined forces with Japan to halt the yen's dramatic slide, marking the first joint currency intervention in 15 years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent employed unusual tactics: selling euros instead of dollars and tapping a little-known Federal Reserve repo facility. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations explains why the Bank of Japan initially held off on raising rates, the broad weakness in East Asian currencies, Japan's improving fiscal outlook, and what to expect going forward.

Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling explains how the tungsten market acts as a century-old prediction market for war. Due to its extreme density and melting point, tungsten is crucial for armor-piercing munitions and other military hardware, so its demand spikes ahead of conflicts. Fickling describes the Dolphin Mine in Australia, which historically opens during wartime and closes in peacetime, illustrating the boom-bust cycle of strategic mineral supply. The conversation also focuses on China's dominance of global tungsten production and why diversifying mining outside China has proven extremely difficult.

This episode explores the growing entanglement between private credit and the insurance industry. Guests Andrew Granato and Pranjal Drall discuss how private equity firms have come to own or partner with insurers, using their stable capital to fuel the private credit boom. They examine the mutual benefits: insurers seek higher yields, while PE shops gain patient, long-term funding. Their paper argues that this interconnection may create a taxpayer risk, as policyholder protections could be exposed if these credit investments sour. The conversation also touches on recent market signals, including Blue Owl's surge and rising non-accruals in large private credit funds.

After Iran's 1979 revolution, its leaders promised wealth redistribution and independence from the West. Instead, according to guests Yeganeh Torbati and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, the economy transformed into a "mafia state" where loyalty to political and religious factions determines economic power. The episode explores how ordinary Iranians navigate pervasive cronyism, how the regime suppressed a once-promising tech sector, and why recent peace talks are unlikely to reshape the underlying patronage networks.

Economist Branko Milanovic discusses the end of globalization and the emerging era he calls "national market liberalism," where powerful governments favor mercantilism and nationalism over free capital movement. Drawing from his new book, he examines China's economic evolution and the pressure it has placed on Western elites. The conversation explores how the global economic order is being remade as trade and investment flows become increasingly influenced by state interests.

Over the next two decades, more than $100 trillion will change hands in the greatest wealth transfer in history. This roundtable, produced by Bloomberg Media Studios and Prudential Financial, brings together retirement research head David Blanchett, financial planner Brittney Castro, and wealth management executive Chelsea Ransom-Cooper to discuss what this means for financial advisors. The conversation covers demographic shifts, the growing demand for protected retirement income, and practical guidance for advisors navigating the transfer of wealth across generations.

The Odd Lots podcast examines how the franchise model in fast food, which exploded in the 1950s, shaped modern employment. Brian Callaci, author of 'Chains of Command,' explains how franchise contracts allow companies to dictate every aspect of an operator's business while avoiding legal responsibility as an employer. This legal framework later enabled the gig economy, with Uber drivers classified as independent contractors under similar logic. The episode also explores how franchises were early adopters of worker surveillance.

Mark Gurman, Bloomberg's managing editor for consumer tech, discusses Apple's strategic inflection point as the company pivots toward new hardware categories and AI integration. The episode covers Apple's delayed response to the AI boom, John Ternus's appointment as new CEO, expected product launches including camera-equipped AirPods and foldable phones, and Apple's controversial first-ever price increases driven by memory shortages. Gurman unpacks what went wrong with Apple's product momentum and whether new leadership can restore the company's cultural cachet.

Boris Cherny, creator of Claude Code at Anthropic, discusses how the coding agent began as a side project and evolved into one of 2026's most discussed software tools. The conversation covers Claude Code's promise to streamline development for both professionals and amateurs, the business strategy behind agentic coding tools, safety and alignment considerations, and how the shift toward AI-assisted coding changes what skills engineers need to prioritize.

A Supreme Court decision on Lisa Cook's firing reveals a fundamental crack in Fed independence. While the court protected Cook's position, it simultaneously allowed the President to fire individual FTC members, undermining quasi-independent agencies. Lev Menand and Nathan Tankus explore the legal history from Hamilton onward that explains why the Fed is treated differently—and how long that exception will hold.

Two soccer analytics veterans explore how the sport has embraced data-driven decision-making despite being perceived as too complex to model. Mike Treacy (head of risk at Apex Fintech Solutions, former Premier League analytics lead, advisor to Austin FC) and Joris Bekkers (soccer analytics consultant, former US Soccer Federation advisor) discuss xG metrics, VAR's impact, how analytics capture intangibles like hustle, and why soccer analytics mirrors volatility arbitrage trading in identifying market inefficiencies.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul discusses her administration's one-year moratorium on new large data center projects—the nation's first such pause. She explains the logic behind the decision while emphasizing she's not anti-AI, and addresses how New York is grappling with energy and housing stress amid explosive AI infrastructure demand. The conversation also touches on autonomous vehicle adoption in the state.

Gary Wingens, chair and partner at Lowenstein Sandler, discusses how AI is reshaping legal work. Rather than eliminating lawyer positions, he argues that falling costs will increase demand for legal services—creating a Jevons Paradox effect where automation paradoxically generates more work. The episode explores AI adoption in law firms, the future of billable hours, and training junior talent in an AI-augmented practice.

Retail investor participation in equities has surged, driven by the AI boom and demand for chips and memory. Korean leveraged single-stock ETFs have exploded in size—assets tripled in Asia alone—creating what Barclays's Global Head of Equities Tactical Strategies calls a "terrifying" amount of notional exposure. The episode explores why these products grew so fast, how they concentrate risk, and what the systemic implications are for retail investors and markets.

Man Group's CTO Gary Collier and Head of Data and AI Tushara Fernando discuss how one of the world's largest hedge funds is implementing AI into its investment operations. The conversation covers how they're empowering quantitative researchers with AI tools, the strategic challenges of integrating AI safely into trading systems, and the dramatic 86-fold increase in token spending across the organization this year—a signal of how deeply AI is being embedded into their workflow.

Prediction markets attract millions in speculative trading, but most participants lose money. This episode profiles serious traders—Brian Golden and Daniel Reichman from the Maga Kiwi Club Discord community—who have built systematic approaches to spotting market inefficiencies and making consistent returns on political and economic predictions. Bloomberg journalist Adam Iscoe discusses the research, methodologies, and biases that separate profitable traders from the crowd.

Scott Patton, Aldi's US Chief Commercial Officer, discusses the logistics of opening Aldi's first Midtown Manhattan location near Times Square and how the company maintains famously low prices on everything from wagyu ground beef to private-label staples. The conversation covers Aldi's supply chain orchestration, their selective approach to name-brand integration, the viral "Aisle of Shame," and how GLP-1 adoption is reshaping consumer grocery behavior.

Dan Wang returns from Shanghai to discuss the contradictions in China's economy: undeniable industrial progress and rising material prosperity alongside domestic market weakness, worker precarity, and pervasive unease. The episode explores how these tensions manifest in daily life, the signs of economic fragility beneath the surface, and how smartphone culture is reshaping Chinese society and social dynamics.

Baidu CFO Henry He explains how the Chinese tech giant evolved from a search leader into a full-stack AI player, developing its own chips, AI models, cloud infrastructure, and self-driving cars. The conversation covers token spend maximization, AI safety approaches among Chinese firms, the global robotaxi competition, and the ongoing role of the search business.

Lenovo CFO Winston Cheng joins Odd Lots to discuss how companies are navigating the unprecedented AI capital expenditure boom. Cheng outlines Lenovo's strategy of moving beyond personal computing by integrating AI agents into devices and building an AI cloud infrastructure alongside Nvidia. The conversation also covers the intense market involution (内卷) in China and how Lenovo is adapting its supply chain to tariffs. The episode provides a rare window into the financial decision-making behind one of the biggest capex cycles in history.

Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, revisits his earlier prediction that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict would send oil to $200 a barrel. With the strait mostly reopened and prices only modestly elevated, he explains the key factors that kept a lid on markets: re-routing of shipments, jawboning from the Trump administration, and most importantly a surprise drop in Chinese imports. The conversation reveals how demand-side adjustments and logistical flexibility can offset even major supply disruptions.

The 1994 World Cup in the US marked a turning point for the business of football, transforming the tournament from a broadcast money-loser into a global advertising platform. Journalist Joey D'Urso explains how American companies like McDonald's and Mastercard pioneered sponsorship models that now dominate international sports, and he shares stories from his book about the surprising intersections of football shirts, corporate power, and geopolitics.

Grace Shao, an independent AI researcher and author of the AI Proem Substack, discusses the rapid evolution of China's AI industry following DeepSeek's release of a cheap frontier model. The episode covers Chinese companies' push to become full-stack AI players with proprietary chips and models, the competitive landscape among Chinese frontier labs, where real bottlenecks exist in the supply chain, and China's manufacturing advantages in the global AI race.

A panel discussion from Odd Lots' New York live show featuring three Substack creators—James van Geelen (Citrini Research), Sam Ro (The TKer), and journalist Jasmine Sun—exploring how to cover markets during an AI-saturated, high-pressure news cycle. The panelists discuss media coverage of AI bubble fears, potential job losses, Silicon Valley sentiment, and whether AI can replicate writer voice and personality.

Jack Clark (co-founder and head of public benefit at Anthropic) and economist Peter McCrory discuss how the AI safety company approaches existential risk, labor market impacts, and government regulation. They cover recursive self-improvement, the hiring priorities for engineers building frontier models, and why Clark transitioned from Bloomberg to the early AI industry.

Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO and veteran bubble-spotter, discusses his memoir on long-term investing in short-term markets. He examines current signs of market frothiness, draws parallels between today's AI enthusiasm and the dot-com bubble, analyzes a watershed moment for Big Tech stocks, and shares what signals he watches to identify when bubbles are about to burst.

An interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz offers temporary relief, but Asia's economic challenges extend far beyond the chokepoint. The Iran conflict has forced structural shifts in how Asia sources food and energy, creating a 'new normal' for global supply chains that may persist long after the immediate crisis ends.

Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data and Compute Exchange, discusses building infrastructure for GPU markets at scale. Working alongside DRW's Don Wilson, Li is constructing a GPU pricing index and spot marketplace to address the volatility and standardization challenges in compute procurement. The episode covers GPU price discovery, the economics of used compute hardware, and what it takes to create an entirely new asset class.

Anjney Midha, an early Anthropic investor and former a16z partner, discusses his new company AMP PBC and its mission to radically lower AI compute costs through a standardized GPU utility grid. The core problem: compute is fragmented and heterogeneous, forcing labs into inefficient long-term contracts despite spiky, unpredictable demand. Midha explains how a software layer could dramatically improve utilization and why the future won't be dominated by a single compute provider but rather a diverse ecosystem of specialized models.

Aiden Johnson, co-founder of HayWire newsletter, discusses how AI and data aggregation are bringing transparency to the fragmented hay market. The episode explores why hay—a commodity with opaque regional pricing and limited liquidity—was worth building a business around, how vibecoding enabled rapid prototyping, the challenges of commodity price volatility affecting horse ownership economics, and why hay demand is tightening globally.

Jacob Krempel, SVP of procurement at wholesale distributor Baldor, explains why tomato prices hit a 40-year high in April 2026 at $2.69/lb. The episode explores where America's tomato supply actually comes from, how tariff and trade policy drive produce costs, why restaurants struggle with price volatility, and the emergence of novel tomato varieties reshaping the market.

Brannin McBee, co-founder and CDO of CoreWeave, returns to discuss the evolving cloud compute market three years after the company's previous appearance. CoreWeave has since IPOed and expanded funding through bond markets and Nvidia partnerships. The conversation explores persistent bottlenecks in AI infrastructure—chip supply scarcity, transformer availability, and electricity constraints—plus shifts in lease markets, Nvidia's new Vera Rubin systems, and the balance between training and inference demand.

Jeremy Maletz, head of macro trading and prediction markets at Susquehanna International Group, discusses how the trading firm is solving liquidity problems in prediction markets through market-making with Kalshi. The conversation covers institutional adoption barriers, how large investors could use prediction markets, current trading flows, risk hedging strategies, and the economics of market-making in these emerging contracts.

Hudson River Trading's head of AI discusses how the firm is deploying large language models at scale, seven months after our last conversation. The episode covers token costs, compute bottlenecks, memory pricing, employee spending on AI inference, and whether HRT might build its own chips to manage the exploding economics of running AI systems in production.

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, discusses how major banks are deploying AI across their operations—from back-office work to senior investment banking roles. He explains why he doesn't expect mass white-collar job displacement from AI, explores the current state of capital markets and major deals like the upcoming SpaceX IPO, and reflects on how AI is transforming music production, a personal passion.

Commodity finance—the funding layer that enables global production, transportation, and storage of everything from oil to cashews—operates invisibly until disruption strikes. Lewis Hart, head of corporate advisory and banking at Brown Brothers Harriman, explains how commodity finance actually works: who funds the tankers, how risk gets priced, why warehouse quality matters, and why financing hedgeable commodities like oil differs fundamentally from financing non-hedgeable ones like cashews.

Tim Queeney, author of 'Rope: How a Bundle of Twisted Fibers Became the Backbone of Civilization,' explains how twisting fibers into durable rope was a foundational technology enabling lifting, whaling, bridges, and more. He traces the history of rope from its prehistoric invention to modern synthetic materials and speculates about its future potential, including the possibility of a space elevator.

Harvard economics professor and former IMF deputy director Gita Gopinath explains the global bond market selloff and rising interest rates across Japan, Korea, the UK, and beyond. She identifies a dangerous confluence of demographic headwinds, high public debt levels, and massive capital demands from the AI boom creating inflationary pressure worldwide. Gopinath warns that investors are wrong to assume governments will rescue markets in the next major shock, and bond markets remain in a fragile, disconnected state from equity valuations.

Journalist and financial historian Brendan Greeley traces the dollar back 500 years, revealing that the word predates the United States and originated from German references to Spanish silver currency mined in Mexico. The episode explores what actually backs the modern US dollar and explains how understanding this history is essential to grasping money's fundamental nature and who controls it.

A deep dive into the economics and operations of London's Devonshire pub, featuring co-founders Oisin Rogers (publican) and Ashley Palmer-Watts (chef). The episode explores why two pubs close daily in England, what distinguishes a good pub from a bad one, the impact of the 2007 smoking ban on pub culture, the physics of pouring the perfect pint of Guinness, and how ingredient cost inflation doesn't always translate to menu price increases.

In this episode, Norman Foster discusses the economics of architecture, explaining how constraints shape design, how developers weigh public impact, what gives a building lasting value, and why the West lags behind China in completing major infrastructure projects.

Fahmi Quadir, founder of Safkhet Capital and known as 'The Assassin' for shorting Wirecard and Valeant, joins Odd Lots live in London. She explains the investigative nature of short selling, the paradox of a 'golden age of fraud' where shorting has become harder, and reveals she is going long for the first time in one of the world's best-performing markets.

Andrew Feldman, CEO and founder of Cerebras, discusses why his company built chips 58 times larger than average—about the size of a dinner plate. The massive form factor enables blazing-fast AI inference. Feldman covers the history of GPU design, competition between open and closed-source AI models, Cerebras's manufacturing relationship with TSMC, and what the company's IPO means for the AI hardware landscape.

Ozan Tarman, Deutsche Bank's vice chair of global macro, and Aditya Singhal, head of EM trading across rates, FX and credit, discuss how professional traders interpret conflicting macro headlines and market signals. The conversation covers the sustainability of the tech stock rally, the tension between fast money and central bank policy, and how markets are pricing US versus Chinese AI developments. Recorded live at Wilton's Music Hall in London.

Commodity prices are experiencing shock-driven volatility across oil, beef, fertilizer, and other goods, but the patterns are fragmented and strange—corn prices barely move while fertilizer skyrockets. Javier Blas and Lorcan Roche Kelly analyze how the Strait of Hormuz closure, energy shocks, UAE's OPEC exit, and US trade policy are reshaping global commodity markets and farmer economics.

John Collison, co-founder of Stripe, argues that AI agents shopping on behalf of consumers will fundamentally reshape e-commerce. The episode explores how algorithmic decision-making by AI will force brands to appeal directly to machine intelligence rather than human psychology, why traditional discovery mechanisms like keyword search are outdated, and whether AI can truly replicate human taste and preference.

Albert Edwards, the renowned bear at Société Générale, discusses his forecast for double-digit inflation despite the recent period of relative stability. The episode explores why Edwards has maintained his contrarian stance, the structural factors he believes will drive inflation higher, and the unique pressures of being a long-term bear in an asset-inflating financial system.

Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, explains the 'terrifying' power the US wields over the global economy, rooted in dollar dominance and financial infrastructure. He discusses how the Supreme Court tariff ruling and the US-Israel war with Iran are creating a strange disconnect: rising commodity prices coexist with record stock markets. Wolf traces the historical foundations back to the two World Wars, examines a fragmented Europe's anxious balancing act between the US and China, and warns that AI represents a Faustian bargain with dangerous trade-offs. Despite the chaos, he argues that a 'great deal of ruin' can be absorbed before economic growth falters.

Journalist Samanth Subramanian discusses the physical infrastructure beneath the internet—millions of miles of fiber optic cables laid on the ocean floor that form the backbone of global connectivity. The episode explores how this "series of tubes" resembles 19th-century telegraph networks, the geopolitical chokepoints that determine cable routes (like the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal), and the fragility of a system that a single volcanic eruption can disable entirely.

Megan Greene, external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, discusses the central bank dilemma post-Covid: traditional monetary tools are designed to manage demand, but successive supply shocks (Ukraine war, Iran tensions, supply chain disruptions, Brexit) have made demand management increasingly ineffective. She explains how compounding shocks make it harder to dismiss disruptions as 'transitory' and explores the tension between underlying economic weakness and inflation risks.

Mariana Mazzucato, director of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, joins the podcast to discuss her framework of the "mission economy" – using bold, outcome-oriented public missions (like the Apollo moonshot) to direct innovation and coordinate public-private investment. She also defines state capacity, explains how to prevent top talent from fleeing to the private sector, and challenges the idea that governments are inherently inefficient, pointing to the role of consultants. The conversation covers the public financing of Silicon Valley's foundational algorithms and the history of moonshots.

Mayor Matthew Tuerk discusses Allentown, Pennsylvania's strategy to reclaim its manufacturing legacy. Once a hub for transistor production in the 1950s and devastated by steel industry decline, Allentown is leveraging its geographic advantage—a day's drive from 40% of the US population—to attract modern manufacturing, data centers, and logistics operations. The episode covers local industrial policy implementation, rezoning strategies, supply chain resilience, and an unexpected growth area: weight-gaining industries.

Since taking office in 2020, Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott has focused on reducing the city's vacant housing stock. In this episode, recorded at the Bloomberg CityLab conference in Madrid, he discusses how deindustrialization, redlining, and gun violence historically contributed to the crisis, the city's approach to block-by-block redevelopment, and its work matching empty properties with publicly-minded developers. The number of vacant homes has fallen from 16,000 to just over 11,800 under his administration. He also shares why many Baltimore natives are not fans of the TV show The Wire.

In this episode of Odd Lots, host Joe Weisenthal and guest Salomon Aaron, director at London's David Aaron gallery and in-house broker for dinosaur fossils, explore the booming private market for dinosaur skeletons. They discuss how fossils are found, priced, and sold, often to wealthy collectors rather than museums. The conversation covers the mechanics of the fossil trade, the role of auction houses and galleries, and how buyers are identified. Joe also shares his personal skepticism about a piece of evolutionary biology connecting birds to dinosaurs.

In the wake of recent geopolitical disruptions, Odd Lots examines the long-standing concern over Taiwan as a potential flashpoint. The hosts speak with Eyck Freymann, author of Defending Taiwan and a Hoover fellow, about the strategic importance of Taiwan and its semiconductor industry. The conversation covers Xi Jinping's plans, Taiwan's domestic political landscape, and the concept of the 'silicon shield' as a deterrent. They explore what a conflict could look like and the U.S. role in preventing it. The episode provides a comprehensive overview of the risks surrounding the Taiwan Strait.

BlackRock COO Rob Goldstein discusses the firm's early technology history, the development of its iconic Aladdin risk management platform, and how BlackRock navigates the tension of being both a major user and provider of AI. He shares his perspective on a coming 'SaaSpocalypse,' the practical challenges of token consumption and compute constraint, and the future of private markets.

Private credit has ballooned into a market larger than junk-rated corporate bonds, reshaping the landscape of corporate lending. Sheehan and Manchuck, portfolio managers at Osterweis Capital Management, trace the market's explosive growth, its entanglement with private equity and insurance, and the mounting risks of defaults as interest rates remain elevated. The episode unpacks what drove this shift and why investors should be watching closely.

Reporter Shawn Wen examines the killing of Bob Lee, Cash App creator, and the media firestorm that followed in San Francisco. The episode explores how misinformation and speculation dominated the narrative in the days before his killer was arrested, with tech leaders like David Sacks and Elon Musk making inflammatory claims without evidence.

Odd Lots examines METR's viral capability benchmark charts that show AI models performing complex tasks at superhuman speed. The episode explores how researchers measure autonomous AI capability, what these charts actually measure, and why this matters for understanding AI risk. Hosts speak with METR President Chris Painter and technical staff member Joel Becker about the mechanics and philosophy behind AI capability evaluation.

James Bosworth, founder of political risk analysis firm Hxagon, discusses the "orange shift"—a region-wide realignment of Latin American leaders toward dealmaking with the Trump administration. The conversation covers how different countries are positioning themselves relative to US power, inflation management strategies, the popularity of leaders like Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum and El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, Brazil's Lula's economic surprises, and the strategic calculus leaders face knowing Trump's tenure is temporary.

Elizabeth Reid, VP of Search at Google, discusses how AI is fundamentally reshaping search and information discovery. The conversation centers on Google's integration of Gemini into search via AI Overviews, the tension between maintaining ad revenue and adopting AI-native interfaces, and the practical challenges of search quality in an era of LLMs and internet misinformation.

Weisenthal and Alloway break down the rapid escalation of tariffs in early 2025 — China at 145%, blanket tariffs on most countries, and the unpredictability that is paralyzing business planning. They argue the uncertainty is more damaging than the tariffs themselves.

The hosts examine why NVIDIA's quarterly earnings have become the single most market-moving event in global finance — more impactful than Fed decisions or jobs reports. A single company's GPU sales now drive trillions in market cap movements.

The hosts present evidence that immigration was the primary driver of US economic outperformance in 2023-2024. Net immigration of 3+ million per year expanded the labor force, filled worker shortages, and boosted GDP growth above what domestic demographics alone could support.

The hosts examine rising long-term interest rates despite the Fed cutting short-term rates — a phenomenon that suggests the bond market is independently pricing fiscal risk, term premium, and inflation expectations. The 'bond vigilantes' of the 1990s may be back.

Weisenthal and Alloway debate whether the Fed achieved a genuine soft landing or got lucky. Inflation fell from 9% to 3% without a recession, but was that the result of skillful policy or supply chain normalization that would have happened anyway?

The hosts examine the growing pension funding gap: state and local pensions are $1.4 trillion underfunded, and many are using aggressive return assumptions (7-8%) that require permanent risk-taking. The reckoning will come as Baby Boomers retire.

Former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo discusses implementing the CHIPS Act, bringing semiconductor manufacturing back to America, and why industrial policy is making a comeback after decades of free-market orthodoxy.

Former NY Fed trader Joseph Wang explains why the Treasury market keeps experiencing liquidity crises. The market has grown 5x since 2008 while dealer balance sheets have shrunk, creating a structural mismatch that the Fed must repeatedly backstop.

Weisenthal and Alloway trace the housing affordability crisis to its root cause: local zoning laws that prevent new construction in high-demand areas. Cities like San Francisco and New York have made it nearly impossible to build, creating a permanent shortage.

The hosts trace NVIDIA's supply chain: chips designed in California, manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan, packaged by companies in Malaysia, assembled into servers by SuperMicro, and installed in data centers across the world. The fragility is extraordinary.

The hosts trace the insurance-climate feedback loop: climate risk raises insurance costs, which makes housing unaffordable, which pushes migration to cheaper areas, which concentrates people in new risk zones, restarting the cycle.

Claudia Sahm, creator of the Sahm Rule recession indicator, discusses why her own indicator triggered in mid-2024. She argues this time may be different due to immigration-driven labor supply expansion rather than demand collapse.

The hosts explore the explosive growth of private credit — now a $1.7 trillion market — and why banks are losing lending business to private credit funds. The key risk: these loans don't trade on exchanges, so no one really knows what they're worth until they default.

The hosts trace lithium's price collapse — from $80,000/ton in November 2022 to $12,000/ton by mid-2024. The commodity that was supposed to be 'the new oil' crashed because high prices incentivized massive new supply from Australia, Chile, and China.

Weisenthal and Alloway investigate the energy crisis created by AI data center expansion. A single ChatGPT query uses 10x the electricity of a Google search. Big Tech is buying nuclear reactors, blocking new housing near substations, and competing with residential users for power.

Historian Adam Tooze discusses the concept of polycrisis — multiple interconnected global crises creating feedback loops that make each individual crisis harder to solve.

Despite rhetoric about deglobalization, global trade hit record highs in 2023. The hosts argue that trade isn't declining — it's rerouting through intermediary countries (Vietnam, Mexico, India) to avoid tariffs while maintaining the same supply chains.

Former JPMorgan strategist Josh Younger explains the repo market — the $5 trillion-per-day overnight lending market that underpins all financial markets. When repo breaks, everything breaks. Most investors don't know it exists.

Japan spent an estimated $50-60 billion intervening in currency markets to support the yen after it hit 34-year lows against the dollar. The hosts debate whether currency intervention ever works and why Japan tried anyway.

The hosts examine predictions of dollar decline and find them wanting. The dollar's dominance rests not on American virtue but on the absence of alternatives: no other currency has deep enough capital markets, rule of law, and openness to capital flows.

Energy historian Daniel Yergin on how the energy transition is reshaping global power. Why the transition will take longer than optimists hope, and why oil will remain central to geopolitics for decades.

The hosts explore China's persistent deflation: falling consumer prices, collapsing real estate, and weak domestic demand. They argue Chinese deflation exports disinflationary pressure globally through cheap goods, complicating Western central banks' inflation fights.

Boston University economist Perry Mehrling presents his 'money view' framework: money is not a thing but a system of interlocking promises (IOUs). Understanding money requires understanding the balance sheets of banks, the Fed, and the shadow banking system.

After a 3.5-year COVID pause, student loan payments resumed in October 2023. The hosts examine the $1.7 trillion student debt overhang and why the repayment restart has been less economically disruptive than feared.

Former FT Alphaville editor Izabella Kaminska explains why financial fraud follows recurring patterns across centuries — from the South Sea Bubble to FTX. Complexity, distance from the underlying asset, and social proof create the same conditions every time.

The BIS Head of Research explains how global liquidity actually works — why the dollar system is more resilient than critics claim and how central bank swap lines prevented a 2020 financial collapse.

The hosts explore the economic implications of GLP-1 weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro). If 15-20% of Americans lose significant weight, the ripple effects touch healthcare, airlines, food companies, fashion, and even amusement parks.

Economist Isabella Weber presents her sellers inflation thesis: post-pandemic inflation was driven not by excess demand or money supply but by firms using supply shocks as cover to raise prices and protect margins.

Despite predictions of a commercial real estate apocalypse since 2022, the crash keeps not happening. The hosts explain why: loan extensions, pretend-and-extend, and the difference between a valuation problem and a cash flow problem.

Weisenthal and Alloway explain how Houthi attacks in the Red Sea forced container ships to reroute around Africa, adding 10-14 days to shipping times and raising freight rates 300%. They explore why global supply chains remain fragile despite post-COVID promises of resilience.