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Odd Lots · August 28, 2026 · 46m

Austan Goolsbee Is Worried the Economy Is Overheating

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins Odd Lots to discuss his concerns about the US economy overheating. He explains why inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, the puzzling state of the labor market with low churn, and how AI-driven growth is dominating GDP. Goolsbee shares his skepticism of traditional metrics like r*, his support for Kevin Warsh's approach to forward guidance, and the intense uncertainty central bankers face in trying to cool the economy.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Preview

Stalled Inflation Progress
Goolsbee notes that inflation remains high and the Fed's 2% target is actually farther away than it was a year ago, indicating the economy may be overheating.
Strange Labor Market Dynamics
The labor market is sending mixed signals: GDP is growing, but both hiring and firing remain unusually low, a pattern Goolsbee finds puzzling.

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