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Odd Lots · September 3, 2026 · 36m

What's Behind the Big Surge in US Government Bond Yields

Odd Lots speaks with Stanford Professor Darrell Duffie about the recent surge in global bond yields, with the 30-year US Treasury touching 5%. They discuss what's driving yields higher, potential policy responses including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's surprise increase of the department's bond buyback program and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Duffie, who presented a paper at Jackson Hole in 2023 on fixing the US Treasury market, provides expert insight into the current market dynamics and the challenge of shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Highlights

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Global bond yields hit highest since 2008 as 30-year touches 5%
The episode examines the surge in US government bond yields, which prompted policy responses from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
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Darrell Duffie on fixing the US Treasury market
Duffie recounts his 2023 Jackson Hole paper on reforming the Treasury market and updates on its relevance amid current volatility.
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The challenge of shrinking the Fed's balance sheet
The discussion covers the difficulties the Fed faces in unwinding its large balance sheet while maintaining financial stability.
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