← Home
The hosts trace lithium's price collapse — from $80,000/ton in November 2022 to $12,000/ton by mid-2024. The commodity that was supposed to be 'the new oil' crashed because high prices incentivized massive new supply from Australia, Chile, and China.
This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.
Canon
•
The hosts argue that commodity investors fully adapt to whatever the current price is, making every move feel like a deviation from normal. At $80K lithium, investors adapted and believed $80K was the new floor. At $12K, they adapted and believe lithium is dead.
Highlights
•
Commodity cycles are self-correcting: high prices incentivize new supply, which crashes prices, which stops new investment, which creates the next shortage — and the cycle repeats endlessly
The hosts trace the lithium cycle: EV demand created a shortage, prices spiked 10x, miners opened new projects worldwide, supply flooded the market, prices crashed 85%. The same cycle has played out in oil, copper, iron ore, and every commodity throughout history.Was this useful?