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Odd Lots · June 11, 2026 · 54m

Why Tomatoes Are the Most Expensive They've Been in Four Decades

Jacob Krempel

Jacob Krempel, SVP of procurement at wholesale distributor Baldor, explains why tomato prices hit a 40-year high in April 2026 at $2.69/lb. The episode explores where America's tomato supply actually comes from, how tariff and trade policy drive produce costs, why restaurants struggle with price volatility, and the emergence of novel tomato varieties reshaping the market.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Novel

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Novel Tomato Varieties Are Fragmenting the Commodity Market
New heirloom, specialty, and premium tomato varieties are emerging, fragmenting what was once a homogeneous commodity market into multiple price tiers and supply chains.
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Highlights

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Trade Policy and Tariffs Flow Directly to Consumer Prices
Changes in tariff and trade policy take weeks to months to propagate through the wholesale distribution system and appear on grocery store shelves.
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America's Produce Supply Is Geographically Concentrated
The majority of fresh tomatoes and other produce consumed in America come from a small number of regions, primarily Mexico, making the supply chain vulnerable to regional disruptions.
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Structural Vulnerability in Global Food Systems
Concentrated supply chains for essential produce create systemic vulnerability to policy shocks, climate disruption, and geopolitical shifts, with consumers bearing the cost.
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Editorial

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Restaurants Hedge Price Volatility Through Menu Design and Relationships
High-end restaurants manage produce price spikes by building flexible relationships with distributors, adjusting menus seasonally, and sometimes absorbing costs to maintain consistency.
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Misc

✧Tomato prices at $2.69/lb — highest in ~40 years (April 2026)
✧The produce supply chain is radically concentrated — one distributor can reshape availability
✧Trade policy and tariffs directly flow through to consumer grocery prices within months
✧Novel tomato varieties are fragmenting the commodity market
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