Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, revisits his earlier prediction that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict would send oil to $200 a barrel. With the strait mostly reopened and prices only modestly elevated, he explains the key factors that kept a lid on markets: re-routing of shipments, jawboning from the Trump administration, and most importantly a surprise drop in Chinese imports. The conversation reveals how demand-side adjustments and logistical flexibility can offset even major supply disruptions.