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Throughline · May 21, 2026 · 51m
Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback
Throughline explores the 150-year history of prediction markets, tracing their roots from papal and presidential betting pools to the controversial 'terrorism market' of the early 2000s. The episode features economists who built early academic markets and the architect of DARPA's cancelled Policy Analysis Market. They examine how early setbacks shaped today's booming industry, where platforms like Polymarket let users wager on everything from war to sports. The story reveals the enduring, and often misunderstood, power of betting markets to aggregate information and forecast events.
This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.
Highlights
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In 1988, Robert Forsythe and colleagues launched the Iowa Political Stock Market, an early real-money prediction market for U.S. elections that proved the concept’s accuracy and research value.
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In the early 2000s, DARPA’s Policy Analysis Market proposed letting traders bet on geopolitical events, but public outrage over the idea of profiting from terrorism led to its cancellation.
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From the war in Iran to the Super Bowl, prediction market platforms have become mainstream, building on the foundations of earlier experiments and lessons from past controversies.
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