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Planet Money · June 24, 2026 · 22m

Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets

Show Notes

This excerpt from NPR's Throughline explores the forgotten history of prediction markets: election betting was once common but mysteriously disappeared in the 1940s, political party bosses used conspicuous gambling as a signal of confidence, and in the 1980s, the Iowa Electronic Markets predicted elections more accurately than polls 74% of the time, laying the groundwork for today's platforms.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Canon

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The Iowa Electronic Markets Beat Polling 74% of the Time
In the 1980s, the Iowa Electronic Markets predicted election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls 74% of the time.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini

Highlights

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Election Betting Was Mainstream Until the 1940s
Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded away.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
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Party Bosses Were Expected to Bet on Their Candidates
Political party bosses once conspicuously gambled on their candidates to signal confidence, even if they privately hedged.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
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