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My First Million · July 15, 2026 · 46m

Howard Marks: how I make money while you worry about a market crash

Howard Marks

Howard Marks joins Sam and Shaan to discuss decision-making under extreme uncertainty, what AI means for investors, and timeless principles for navigating fear. He explains his concept of second-level thinking, recounts raising $11 billion during a market panic, and shares why fear can be an asset when managed well. The conversation covers how to build lasting partnerships, his personal definition of success, lessons from Warren Buffett, and why cigar butt investing still matters.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Canon

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Second Level Thinking08:26
Howard Marks explains his framework of second-level thinking—going beyond the obvious to anticipate what other investors will do and how the market will react.
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Highlights

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Raising $11 Billion in a Crisis14:47
Marks recounts how Oaktree raised $11 billion during a period of extreme market fear, a move that required ignoring pervasive pessimism.
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Fear Is an Asset, Not an Enemy17:54
Marks argues that fear is a natural and useful emotion in investing—it keeps you cautious and prevents recklessness.
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Cigar Butt Investing39:37
Marks explains cigar butt investing, a strategy of buying deeply out-of-favor companies that still have a few puffs of value left.
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Editorial

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Only One Success: Living Your Own Way27:37
Marks shares his core philosophy that the only real measure of success is living life on your own terms.
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References

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A Short History of Financial Euphoria — John Kenneth Galbraith — Recommended by Howard Marks as essential reading for understanding market cycles
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Fooled by Randomness — Nassim Nicholas Taleb — Recommended by Howard Marks for its insights on luck and human misjudgment

Misc

✧Marks shared a story about his lunch with Warren Buffett and revealed a little-known personal habit of the legendary investor.
✧Marks attributed the longevity of his partnership to complementary skills and a focus on shared values.
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