Annie Duke on Why We Judge Decisions by Results, Not Logic [From the Archive]

Annie Duke, former professional poker player and author of Thinking in Bets, explains why a good outcome doesn't prove you made a good decision. She discusses how to separate luck from skill, why winning can make learning harder, and how to accelerate the learning process by borrowing expertise from others. James Altucher connects these ideas to his own experiences in business and comedy, exploring how outcome bias distorts feedback loops. They share practical techniques like mental time travel and pre-mortems to make better decisions under uncertainty.