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Thompson reflects on 10 years of Stratechery: the predictions that were right (Aggregation Theory, Apple's services revenue), the ones that were wrong (Twitter's potential, Facebook's VR pivot), and what he's learned about the practice of technology analysis.
This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.
Canon
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Thompson argues that most tech analysis is performative — analysts say what their audience wants to hear. His competitive advantage is saying what he actually thinks, even when it's contrarian or unpopular. The true self in analysis means being willing to be wrong and alone.
Highlights
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The most valuable analytical skill is updating your views when the evidence changes — and doing it publicly
Thompson reviews his worst predictions and traces where his reasoning went wrong. He argues that public intellectual honesty — openly admitting mistakes and explaining why you were wrong — is more valuable than being consistently right.Was this useful?