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Planet Money · July 3, 2026 · 17m

How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory)

Planet Money revisits a Soccernomics episode exploring penalty kicks through the lens of game theory. Even the greatest soccer players, like Lionel Messi, are only average at penalties—and game theory's concept of mixed strategies may explain why. The episode tells how a once-controversial idea in economics gained real-world evidence by studying soccer players, who seem to randomize their kicks in ways that match theoretical predictions. The result is a practical illustration of how game theory works in high-stakes moments and how sports can validate academic models.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Canon

Penalty kicks are a real-world example of game theory's mixed strategy equilibrium—kickers and goalkeepers must randomize their choices to avoid being predictable.

Highlights

Why Messi Is Average at Penalties
Lionel Messi, the greatest goalscorer in history, is merely average at penalty kicks—a fact that game theory helps explain.

Editorial

Crossover Episode: Planet Money Meets Soccernomics
This episode is a rebroadcast of a segment from the Soccernomics podcast, where economists and journalists apply economic thinking to soccer.
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