4199: Does Luck Matter More Than Skill

Cal Newport explores how luck and skill work together in the pursuit of remarkable work. Drawing on Frans Johansson's The Click Moment and Arnold Schwarzenegger's autobiography, he proposes a simple equation in which a project's success equals its potential, set by the rarity and value of your skills, multiplied by serendipity you cannot control. The best strategy, he argues, is to become so good they can't ignore you while launching a steady stream of projects to give luck more chances to strike.