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Marketplace · June 22, 2026 · 00:25:15

Inflation is moving the wrong way

Kai Ryssdal interviews Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee about persistent inflation concerns, the Fed's communication challenges, and why inflation remains stubbornly above target despite recent policy moves. The episode also explores rising beef prices, oil reserve replenishment, and economists' concerns that AI adoption could actually drive inflation rather than reduce it.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Curious

Economists increasingly argue that AI adoption will drive inflation rather than reduce it through productivity gains.

Highlights

Sticky Inflation and Policy Lag
Inflation persistence suggests the Fed may have underestimated either the lag between rate changes and inflation response, or structural stickiness in price-setting.
Beef prices and oil reserves reveal how commodity supply constraints—not demand inflation—can drive persistent price growth.

Editorial

Fed Communication Gap
Central banks struggle to communicate credibly when policy moves (rate cuts) contradict stated inflation concerns (inflation above target).
The episode's discussion of Greenspan's legacy (implied in the transcript reference) surfaces questions about Fed overconfidence in models and market efficiency.

Misc

Goolsbee was one of two FOMC members who opposed rate cuts six months prior and maintains no regrets about that dissent
Central tension: Fed cutting rates while inflation remains 'well above target'
Oil crisis creating global scramble for reserve replenishment with months-long timeline
AI inflation paradox: many economists expect AI to drive UP prices, not down
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