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Invest Like the Best · January 29, 2024 · 75m

Josh Wolfe: Investing at the Frontier of Science

Josh Wolfe

Lux Capital founder Josh Wolfe discusses investing at the frontier of science with Patrick O'Shaughnessy. He argues that the biggest investment returns come from backing the inevitable — technologies that are so clearly needed that the only question is timing, not whether.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Canon

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Return on luck — Wolfe argues that the best deep tech investors create luck by funding many shots on goal, then amplify the returns of the lucky breakthroughs through aggressive follow-on investing
Wolfe describes Lux's strategy as manufacturing luck: fund many frontier science companies (creating many chances for breakthroughs), then pour resources into the ones that achieve breakthroughs (amplifying the lucky outcome). Preparation (broad portfolio) meets luck (scientific breakthrough) to generate outsized returns.
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Highlights

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The best deep tech investments aren't predictions — they're backing the inevitable. Fusion energy, autonomous vehicles, and programmable biology WILL happen; the question is who and when.
Wolfe argues that Lux Capital doesn't try to predict the future — it identifies technologies that are inevitable (based on physics and engineering trends) and then bets on the teams most likely to get there first.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
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