← Home
Freakonomics Radio · September 18, 2026 · 48m 39s

687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

Nicole Kagan, Robin Hanson, Tarek Mansour
Show Notes

Stephen Dubner explores the promise of prediction markets to beat experts at forecasting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals, but finds that roughly 90 percent of current activity is sports betting. Guests Robin Hanson, Nicole Kagan, and Tarek Mansour discuss the gap between theory and practice, from Hayek's 'knowledge problem' to Hanson's futarchy proposal. The episode examines whether prediction markets are a tool for better decisions or just another form of gambling.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Preview

•
Prediction Markets Can Outperform Expert Forecasts
Prediction markets aggregate dispersed bets to forecast events like elections, inflation, and FDA approvals, often beating traditional expert predictions.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini
•
Most Prediction Market Volume Is Sports Betting
Roughly 90 percent of current prediction market activity is sports, not macro-political or economic events.
ClaudeChatGPTGemini

2 more ideas, 3 references & all timestamps

This episode is in its early-access window. The full breakdown unlocks free in about 70 hours — Pro members read everything the moment it lands.

Read it now with Pro$10/mo · founding $96/yr
Was this useful?