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The Ezra Klein Show · May 29, 2026 · 1h 14m 55s

Does Trump Want to Lose the Midterms?

Liam Donovan
Show Notes

Republican strategist Liam Donovan discusses why President Trump appears indifferent to Republican midterm prospects despite historically poor approval ratings. Rather than pivoting toward swing voters or supporting the strongest GOP candidates, Trump has announced a $1.8 billion 'lawfare victims' fund, threatened to escalate the Iran war, and intervened in primaries in ways that benefit Democrats—such as endorsing scandal-plagued Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in Texas. The episode explores Trump's apparent lack of concern for GOP electoral success and the political dynamics reshaping the Republican party.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Highlights

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Primary Endorsements as Democratic Gifts
Trump's primary endorsements in 2026 systematically favor scandal-plagued or polarizing candidates over incumbent Republicans with broader electability.
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Democratic Pathway to Senate Control
Democrats have a realistic path to retaking the Senate in the midterms, with structural advantages in key races where Trump's interventions are likely to help Democratic candidates.
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Editorial

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Trump's Apparent Electoral Indifference
Trump is behaving as though he doesn't care whether Republicans win the midterms, despite having historically low approval ratings that suggest urgent need for political survival.
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The 'Lawfare Victims' Fund as Political Signal
The announcement of a $1.8 billion fund for 'victims of lawfare' frames Trump's legal jeopardy as political persecution rather than accountability, signaling his priorities lie in maintaining his own narrative.
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Iran War Re-escalation as Campaign Distraction
Trump threatened to re-escalate the Iran war during the midterm cycle, an international crisis move that traditionally creates rallying-around-the-flag effects—but one that may not translate to midterm gains.
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References

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The Right — Matthew Continetti — Political movement and ideology
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Apple in China — Patrick McGee — Corporate strategy and geopolitics
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The Frackers — Gregory Zuckerman — Energy industry disruption

Misc

✧Trump's primary interventions (e.g., Paxton endorsement over Cornyn) consistently favor candidates likely to lose in the general election.
✧Republican strategists appear powerless to influence Trump's political calculus.
✧The $1.8 billion 'lawfare victims' fund frames legal accountability as persecution rather than justice.
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