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The Ezra Klein Show · October 27, 2026 · 00:55:05

Nate Silver Predicts a 'Momentous' Midterm

With the 2026 midterms a week away, Ezra Klein talks to election forecaster Nate Silver about what the polls are showing. Democrats are polling surprisingly well deep into red territory, raising the possibility of winning both the House and Senate. But past polling misses loom large—can we trust what the polls are telling us this time? Silver discusses what stories in the data might play out on election night and why this election could mark a turning point in American politics.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Preview

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The potential end of the Trump era at the ballot box
Silver argues that if the midterms go as the polls suggest, it could mark the end of the Trump political era.
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Democrats are polling deep into red territory
Democrats are polling competitively in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas.

1 more ideas, 4 references & all timestamps

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