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EconTalk · October 12, 2026 · 01:11:27

The Great Fertility Collapse (with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde)

Economist Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde discusses with Russ Roberts the unprecedented global fertility collapse, which is now fastest in developing countries like Colombia and Thailand, challenging long-held economic assumptions. The episode explores possible explanations—declining religiosity, smartphones, housing costs, and shifting gender norms—though none are confirmed. Fernandez-Villaverde offers his own speculative view that modern life makes a third child costly and childlessness easy. The conversation then turns to the deep economic consequences: an aging electorate reshaping government spending, slower growth, and fewer future innovators.

This summary was generated from show notes and public descriptions, not from a full transcript review. Details may contain inaccuracies.

Preview

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Fernandez-Villaverde shows that fertility is now falling fastest in middle-income countries like Colombia and Thailand, challenging the old assumption that only wealthy nations reach sub-replacement rates.
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Possible Drivers of the Fertility Collapse
The episode explores several plausible explanations for the fertility decline, including declining religiosity, smartphone and social media influence, high housing costs, and changing gender norms, though none are confirmed.

2 more ideas & all timestamps

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