The Superforecasters: With Guests Leon Panetta, Peter Bergen & Barbara Mellers (Rebroadcast)

Katy Milkman revisits a Choiceology conversation about forecasting under uncertainty. Peter Bergen recounts the intelligence trail to Osama bin Laden's compound and his 1997 interview with bin Laden, while Leon Panetta describes the decision to approve the top-secret mission. Barbara Mellers then discusses research on superforecasters, people who make more accurate probabilistic predictions despite uncertainty and conflicting information. The bin Laden case anchors the episode's larger question of how to make better predictions when the stakes are high.