Pre-Mortem
Gary Klein (1998) · Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (1998)
A pre-mortem is a technique where, before a project starts, you imagine the project has failed and then work backward to identify the reasons for failure.
Core Concepts
The Problem
People tend to be overconfident and optimistic, ignoring potential obstacles until they occur.
The Claim
By prospectively imagining failure, teams can uncover risks and develop contingency plans, increasing the likelihood of success.
Key Evidence
- •Gary Klein's original work with military and corporate teams showed that pre-mortems reveal hidden assumptions and blind spots.
Practical Implication
Regular pre-mortems can reduce overconfidence bias and improve project outcomes.
Nuance & Limits
Annie Duke incorporates pre-mortem thinking into her decision-making framework, emphasizing that identifying obstacles before they happen is a key habit for better decisions.
Source Material
Citation Density
frequently used in business and psychology
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