Outcome Bias
Cognitive science / behavioral economics · Behavioral economics (Kahneman & Tversky) (1979)
Outcome bias is the tendency to judge a decision based on its outcome rather than the quality of the decision process.
Core Concepts
The Problem
People often conflate a good outcome with a good decision, leading to misplaced credit and blame, and preventing learning from failures and successes.
The Claim
Evaluating decisions requires separating luck from skill; the process should be evaluated based on the information available at the time, not the result.
Key Evidence
- •Poker is a domain where skill and luck are clearly separable; a correct fold can lose a small amount while an incorrect call can win big but is still a mistake.
Practical Implication
Improving decision-making requires focusing on process, not outcomes, and building feedback loops that ignore luck.
Nuance & Limits
Outcome bias is pervasive in business, politics, sports, and everyday life; recognizing it is the first step toward better judgment.
Source Material
Citation Density
widely cited in behavioral economics
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