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Fat Pitches: Wait for the Perfect Opportunity

Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger · Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letters (2026)

Confidence: High

The strategy of holding out for exceptionally favorable, high-conviction investment opportunities rather than constantly deploying capital.

Core Concepts

The Problem

Forced activity leads to mediocre returns and increased risk.

The Claim

By exercising extreme patience and only swinging at 'fat pitches,' an investor can achieve superior long-term results with lower downside.

Key Evidence

  • Buffett and Munger's long-term track record of concentrated bets during crises.
  • Pabrai's replication of this approach leading to compound returns of ~20%+ over decades.

Practical Implication

Investors should keep significant cash reserves and wait, sometimes years, for market dislocations that offer obvious value.

Nuance & Limits

May be psychologically difficult to maintain during bull markets; requires a strong independent temperament.

Source Material

Citation Density

High

Gaps

  • No rigorous academic study on the fat-pitch approach's outperformance; primarily anecdotal from successful investors.

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